Sunday, June 18, 2017

More On Associative Investing

Back in August 2016, I had touched on the concept of associative investing to capitalise on disruptive technology companies, where we could invest in areas that support and/or result from these firms, especially since there is little or no avenue to invest in the said companies themselves.1

The basis for associative investing is simple; all sectors and industries are dependent on one another, and it is making use of these interdependence relationships to carry out investing. For example, if you want to invest in e-commerce, besides e-commerce companies, you could take a look at sectors and industries that are related, like data centres, logistics firms, payment solution companies, etc.

A simple way to carry out associative investing is to draw out a relationship chart (e.g. a family tree or an organisation chart) of the sectors/industries concerned. To draw the lines and fill out the various boxes in the chart, you could get the information from online and documentary sources, personal observations or even logical inferences and deductions. After filling out the related sectors, you could select companies and ETFs that best fit these sectors/industries, and then carry out fundamental analysis on them to pick the right ones for your Bedokian Portfolio.

It is not necessary to name the sectors/industries or their sub-categories if you are not familiar with them. Using the e-commerce example above, you could instead use simple terms such as “computers”, “smart phones”, “delivery vehicles”, etc. in your charting.

Once you get the hang of this relationship charting, you could further modify it by having the target sector/industry in the middle of the chart, with suppliers/supporters on top and consumers/resultants at the bottom, creating an “upstream and downstream” map. You could also include competitors and substitutes, making it like a Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat (or SWOT) analysis.

Associative investing allows you to view the entire economic and market ecosystem, as well as the dynamics amongst them. It could also be used to spot future sector/industry trends, a topic which I will touch on in my later posts.



1 - http://bedokianportfolio.blogspot.sg/2016/08/disruptive-technology-capitalise-on-it.html

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Have I Forgotten Bob?

No, I do not. In fact, I still remember him and his Bedokian Portfolio. This is the nature of passive investing, where the portfolio would just sit there (and be easily forgotten) and you do not look at it again until the time that you want to rebalance it.

Anyway, since we had started this test portfolio at the beginning of the year, let us take a look at the status as of 6 June 2017:


*USD/SGD rate at 1.38, from www.xe.com as at 6 June 2017

**Inclusive of dividends from STI ETF of S$185.50 and from Philip AP Dividend REIT ETF of US$159.57 x 1.38 = S$220.21. Bank interest not included.

Bob’s Bedokian Portfolio, which started off with S$30,000.00, has an overall gain of S$1,861.62, which included S$405.71 in dividends parked under the Cash component. Asset class percentage wise, they are still within the tolerable range (recap: ±5% for asset classes of more than 10% allocation and ±2.5% for asset classes below 10%), so Bob need not do rebalancing to address the percentage deviations. However, Bob has decided to transfer S$5,000.00 from his emergency fund and inject it to his Bedokian Portfolio, and he would do a rebalance on 30 June 2017.

So we shall wait till then to see how he does it.


For up-to-date information on Bob’s Bedokian Portfolio, you could visit this page to monitor the progress.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

The Rise of Robo-Advisors

Financial technology, or fintech, is revolutionising the financial world in terms of processes and services, and one of the products of fintech is the robo-advisory. On the investment front, robo-advisories, or robo-advisors, would help you craft your investment portfolio according to your needs, preferences, and risk profiles. The robo-advisor would then, if you want, automatically maintain your investment portfolio, which includes rebalancing.

If you are a passive Bedokian Portfolio investor, this would mean an even more hassle-free maintenance of your portfolio. However, before jumping into this, there are a few points that you may need to consider.

Costs

Robo-advisors do charge a small fee in managing your portfolio, and this fee is usually a percentage of your portfolio and may include an annual fee. On top of it, there could be transaction costs in transacting the securities in your portfolio as well during rebalancing. Do make a comparison of these costs among the robo-advisors.

Transparency of Financial Instruments

Robo-advisors tend to use ETFs to build your portfolio, which is a good thing for passive Bedokian Portfolio investors, but it is better to know what are the ETFs used in building up your portfolio. With the knowledge of what ETFs are used, you could research further in the underlying securities of the ETFs, as well as their expense ratios.

Flexibility and Control

Although your portfolio may be automated, there are some investors who would like to have some flexibility and control over it, like the frequency of rebalancing, the choice of asset classes and sectors/regions, and their respective allocation percentages.

Do I Need A Robo-Advisor

Finally, the mother of all considerations on robo-advisors would be “Do I need them in the first place?”. If you prefer a more hands-on approach in managing your Bedokian Portfolio (and enjoying it), then you do not need them.



Saturday, May 6, 2017

Commodity-Related Companies for the Commodities Asset Class?

A question popped up by one of my friends with regards to the commodities asset class in The Bedokian Portfolio. He asked instead of getting gold, silver and oil, could he replace them with gold and silver mining, and oil companies? After all, they are in the commodity business.

To give my answer, it will be a “no”.

Why No

The main aim of the commodity asset class is to have a form of insurance against the volatility of the markets, in accordance to reducing portfolio risk through diversification of asset classes1.  That being said, it is better to own “as direct as possible” the commodities, be it physical or through ETFs that track their prices.

On the other hand, when you buy into a gold/silver mining or oil company, the price of the commodity itself is just one part; you are also buying into the company’s assets, liabilities, management strategies and styles, etc. In fact, you are actually buying into the equities of the company which belong to the, obviously, equities asset class.

For example, when the price of gold goes up, there is a high chance that the share price of a gold mining company will go up as well, but how proportional this increase is will depend on other factors of the company, such as costs of mining, the productivity levels, etc.

If the price of gold goes down, a mining company may not want to mine them as the amount may not be worth their expenditure effort. If this prolongs, it may run the risk of bankruptcy due to cash flow problems. As with all companies, the bottom line is still the most important. For physical gold or gold ETF, however, it just remains as it is without much of the factors and risks described earlier.

So Can I Still Invest In These Commodity-Related Companies

Yes you can, but remember to put them in your equities asset class rather than the commodities one, and also provided you do proper fundamental analysis before going into them.



1 – The Bedokian Portfolio, p37

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Sector Diversification

In my ebook The Bedokian Portfolio, I constantly harped on diversification of asset class and foreign financial markets, but I did not touch much on sector diversification. In this blog post, I would share a bit on the sector aspect.

What is a Sector

According to Investopedia, sector, or sometimes called the industry, is “… an area of the economy in which businesses share the same or a related product or service. It can also be thought of as an industry or market that shares common operating characteristics”1. In the degree of diversification for The Bedokian Portfolio, sector comes below region/country, since the same sector could perform well in one country but may not be in another.

There are a few ways to define sectors. One way is to classify them by primary, secondary and tertiary, which are companies related to raw materials, processing and manufacturing, and services, respectively, akin to a source-to-end-user process. Most investors would prefer to use the standard “10 sectors”2, namely financials, utilities, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, health care, industrials, technology, telecommunications and materials. These 10 sectors, in turn, could be divided into sub-sectors. Our local stock exchange, SGX, also has its own sector classification3.

The sector is used and analysed in the second tier of fundamental analysis (FA) known as environmental factors. As I had mentioned in the ebook4, the sector represents the “playing field” of the companies involved. When conducting FA, besides analysing the company in question, you must consider the future heading of the sector in general as well.

Why is Sector Diversification Important

In my ebook, I had highlighted an example using the local telecommunications sector and buying up equities of the three companies does not equate to diversification, for any negative impact to the sector would result in losses5. In a somewhat true fashion, when news broke out on the authorities’ intention to grant a licence for a fourth company back in July 2015, all three existing companies’ share prices took a hit.

On a longer term, the drop in the price of oil for almost the past three years had brought the oil and its related industries to a low. Consumers of oil, however, are benefiting, such as transportation and manufacturing. It is precisely this scenario that, like asset classes, certain sectors will perform better than others in certain economic conditions.

Sector Diversification In The Bedokian Portfolio

It is advisable to have a myriad of sectors and industries for your Bedokian Portfolio, but do take note that a sector could be quite broad and sometimes the sub-sectors within it is not really correlated with one another (e.g. manufacturing of machinery and manufacturing of food). As a rule of thumb, the 12% limit rule (see here) should be used for individual companies and sector-based exchange traded funds, in the case for equities. To a certain extent, sector diversification should be practiced for bonds in terms of the corporate bond issuer’s industry.

REITs are a bit unique on the topic of sector diversification as they are a hybrid of equity and property, hence for simplistic sake it is better to have different types of REITs according to their nature, like retail, hospitality, industrial, etc.


1 – Investopedia. What is a ‘Sector’. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sector.asp (accessed 21 Apr 2017)

2 – Kuepper, Justin. The Ten Sectors of the Stock Market. ETFdb.com. 25 Dec 2015. http://etfdb.com/etf-education/the-10-sectors-of-the-stock-market/ (accessed 21 Apr 2017)

3 – SGX.com. Sectors are: Multi=Multi-Industry, MFG=Manufacturing, CONS=Construction, COM=Commerce, Hotels=Hotels&Restaurants, TSC=Transport, Storage&Comm., FIN=Finance, PROP=Properties, SERV=Services, AGR=Agriculture, MINQ=Mining/Quarrying, EGW=Electricity/Gas/Water 

4 – The Bedokian Portfolio, p88-89.

5 – The Bedokian Portfolio, p12.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Keep Calm and Ride The Waves

2017 had opened with a big bang for the local financial market. For the period of 3 January to 13 April, the Straits Times Index (STI) had taken a tremendous rise from 2887 points on 3 January to 3169.24 points on 13 April, with reaching a high of 3187.51 points just two weeks ago1; Gold had risen from USD 1158.84 to USD 1287.92 along the same timeframe2; Singapore REITs (S-REITs) had also gone up, with the FTSE REIT Index rising from 714.89 points to 765.43 points3. Even the ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund, one of the main indicators used for the local bond scene, displayed a miniscule rise from $1.135 to $1.1554. In fact, the phenomenon is shown at Bob’s Bedokian Portfolio (here), where you could see the rise of prices of the ETFs representing the various asset classes (except cash, which is not measured).

With all these happening, one question pops into most of our minds; are the asset classes really correlated to one another? Is diversification deemed as unnecessary?

Basis of Diversification

The Bedokian Portfolio and some other investment portfolio books espouse diversification through asset classes due to the different correlation displayed in different economic conditions. The very gist of diversification is to reduce risk and to prevent huge losses to your portfolio. There is no surefire way to completely protect your portfolio 100%, but diversification does help out somewhat, hence my emphasis in bold on the words “reduce” and “prevent”.

Time and again, the past has shown this to be true; bonds held up and gold spiked while equities and REITs tumbled during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009. However when boom time comes, equities and REITs pounced up at the expense of the rest.

US Market Correlation

In my first paragraph, I had highlighted the correlation issue from the local Singapore market perspective. Let us take a look at the correlations of the major US asset class ETFs for the same time period (3 January – 13 April 2017)5:



The correlation relationship is denoted with a number ranging from -1 to 1. If the number is close to “1”, the two asset classes are positively correlated (meaning they have roughly the same correlation). If the number is close to “-1”, the two asset classes are negatively correlated (meaning they have roughly a different correlation).

From the matrix above, there is still some correlation difference at work among the major asset classes in the US markets, specifically between the VTI and BND as well as VTI and GLD.

Any Explanation for High Correlation of Asset Classes?

The assumption of different asset classes behaving differently in different economic conditions is based on basic economics and market dynamics; the flow of capital to whichever asset class that is deemed safe and/or provide higher returns at a particular economic and market situation. Explaining in further detail with reference to the GFC example above, capital flowed away from equities and REITs into the deemed safe havens of bonds (especially government ones) and gold. Once the market improves, equities and REITs prices are rising again and naturally capital flowed back to them for greater returns.


There are a few explanations as to why high correlation happens. One of them is the ever-complicating world that we live in, with so many things, events and happenings all entwined together, even if they are remotely related, thus creating multiple push-pull factors on asset class correlations. Periods of market irrationality also play a part in having high correlation6. Another reason is credited to the intervention of central banks in the form of near-zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases in response to the GFC7.

Conclusion

In my opinion, difference in correlation among asset classes will always exist, just that it would manifest as time goes by. The Bedokian Portfolio investor’s timeframe is at least ten years, so do not be overly affected by this high correlation phenomenon. And my answer to all these would be my title for this post; Keep Calm and Ride The Waves.


1 – Yahoo Finance. STI Index. https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/^STI?p=^STI (accessed 15 Apr 2017)

2 – Bloomberg. XAUUSD. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAUUSD:CUR (accessed 15 Apr 2017)

3 – Marketwatch. FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/fstas8670?countrycode=xx  (accessed 15 Apr 2017)

4 – Yahoo Finance. ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund (A35.SI). https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/A35.SI?p=A35.SI (accessed 15 Apr 2017)

5 – Asset Class Correlations, 01/03/2017 to 04/13/2017. Portfolio Visualizer. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations?s=y&s=y&startDate=01%2F03%2F2017&endDate=04%2F13%2F2017&timePeriod=1 (accessed 16 Apr 2017)

6, 7 – Costa, Filipe R. What does the decline in correlations among asset classes mean? Master Investor. 20 Feb 2017. https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/decline-correlations-among-asset-classes-mean/ (accessed 16 Apr 2017)