The Bedokian Portfolio Turns 10!

Back in July 2016, the first post on this blog went live. It was a short piece, little more than a welcome note explaining that this would be a space for observations and opinions on the markets and the economy, alongside clarifications on The Bedokian Portfolio ebook (then the first edition) that had just been published. I was hoping that the information from the ebook and blog would be useful to whoever was reading them. At that time, there was still a relative shortage of investment books written with a Singapore context, especially in the field of portfolio management. 

Picture generated by ChatGPT

Looking back at the past 383 posts, I had commented on the general market and economic situations, analysed the various securities (vested or not), and shared on the psychological and behavioural aspects of investing. Beyond the blog itself, the past decade also saw the publication of the second edition of The Bedokian Portfolio, The Trading Portfolio Handbook, and an amateur paper testing The Bedokian Portfolio on the United States market (all available for free download here). 

Recently, three apps were developed: Equities Indicator, Growth Indicator and S-REITs Indicator (see here), and they assist in screening value and dividend equities, growth equities and Singapore real estate investment trusts (REITs), respectively, according to the selection guidelines from the The Bedokian Portfolio ebook¹. The introduction of AI-generated pictures and characters for the blog, alongside the apps, represents my experimentation with AI, which I will elaborate on further below.

In the past ten years, we had gone through a global pandemic, trade wars, periods of low and high interest rates, the ongoing de-globalisation and the current AI boom. Through all of this, the five asset classes of the Bedokian Portfolio: equities, REITs, bonds, commodities, and cash, experienced their own respective ups and downs. It is precisely the correlation between the asset classes, together with the accompanying disciplines of diversification and rebalancing, that brought about the gradual compounding growth and relatively lower volatility of the portfolio.

Where is our portfolio standing now?

I had shared earlier here that our main Bedokian Portfolio was down 4.75% year-to-date (YTD). As of local market close yesterday (29 Jul 2026, 5:00 PM), our portfolio was up around 6.8% YTD, and the total market value had surpassed 9.4% of our year end 2029 target. The latter is broadly expected, as we are benchmarking against a 4% year-on-year growth trajectory, and this conservative performance measure acts as a dampener to smooth out the percentage swings of returns.

The Use of AI

In recent years, AI has become indispensable in our digital life. A lot of apps and even the familiar online search engines have seamlessly incorporated the AI tools, in particular large language models (LLMs) and chatbots. I had also started on this trend with the abovementioned picture generation, and development of the three apps through AI assistance (a.k.a. vibe coding).

On top of this, we sometimes use AI to assist and augment our investment and trading research and analysis. The fun part about this is we could use the output of one LLM, and input its result on others, i.e. using the “LLM-as-a-judge” method, to provide additional perspectives.

AI tools are powerful in terms of collecting, aggregating and summarising data and information, and sometimes in inference. Still, my honest opinion is, for the investing and trading aspect, some manual interpretation and intervention is needed, and the ultimate judgment call should be reserved on the individual investor/trader.

Going Forward

The future is unknown, as always, and there will be events that disrupt the whole scheme of things, like complex geopolitics and AI in the current context. What is known is that this blog will continue for the foreseeable future, providing tips and commentary on the investing world.

Here is to the next chapter, and to a fruitful investing and trading journey ahead for all of us.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

1 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Ed). Ch12 and Ch17.

How Liquid Should Your Liquidity Be?

Cash plays an important role in the Bedokian Portfolio, a pool of liquidity that could be deployed to the other four asset classes (equities, real estate investment trusts or REITs, bonds and commodities). Cash injections, through regular contributions from disposable income, dividends from equities, distributions from REITs, coupons from bonds and interest from cash, contribute to this pool.

What if one could get more bang for the buck from this liquid pool?

Sounds a bit contradictory as cash is meant to be readily deployable capital. Unless the cash is in physical form and locked away in a safe or a metal container of a famous powdered malt-drink, it is still earning something depending on where it is.

 

 Picture generated by ChatGPT

 

Where Else To Put Cash?

The first obvious place is the basic bank savings account, which is around 0.05% based on what I had seen from bank websites. The next bank offering would be fixed deposits that offer a higher interest rate but with locked-in periods ranging from one month to three years.

 

Besides banks, there are other means of holding cash and still earning something. Six-month and one-year Treasury Bills (T-Bills) are issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and can serve a similar purpose to a fixed deposit, although they are government securities rather than bank deposits. There is another financial instrument issued through MAS, the Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs), a 10-year savings plan with incremental interest rates over time.

 

Another mention is money market funds, or MMFs. These are unit trusts that invest in short-term debt securities such as T-Bills, short-term corporate debt and fixed deposits. Hence, they combine several cash management instruments within a single investment vehicle.

 

Not All Are Equal

Safes, bank accounts, T-Bills, SSBs and MMFs are ways to hold one’s cash in the portfolio and the latter four generate some return, albeit lower than the other asset classes. However, they are different in terms of their structures and characteristics. Bank savings accounts and fixed deposits are insured up to SGD 100,000 by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation (SDIC), subject to conditions. T-Bills and SSBs are issued by MAS and backed by the Singapore Government. MMFs are investment vehicles, so they are subject to market forces and are not guaranteed in the event of a collapse, though the latter happening is very remote.

 

My take is that the more important aspect of cash is not about how much yield I can earn, but rather the liquidity of the various mentioned instruments. For me, liquidity matters more than squeezing out every last iota of return.

 

Monies from bank savings accounts can be withdrawn anytime. MMFs can generally be redeemed within a day or two. SSBs are redeemed monthly, while T-Bills and fixed deposits will have to wait till the end of the tenure, provided the former are not sold in the secondary market, and the latter are not closed prematurely. Looking across these cash management instruments, there is generally a trade-off between yield and liquidity.

 

Any Compromise On This?

Choosing a place to hold cash for the portfolio is like considering the "liquidity of the liquidity". My take is, as a ballpark, a holding period of no more than six months is preferred; this is the time frame where a typical passive investor would rebalance his or her portfolio, so a six-month T-Bill or fixed deposit would allow the funds to become available again for deployment. Also, other recent streams of cash received from the portfolio could be utilised first, and this may lead to a probable sub-division of cash into liquid (bank savings accounts and MMFs) and slightly less liquid places (T-Bills, SSBs and fixed deposits), or maybe even in safes and tin cans (though a trip to the automated teller deposit machines is needed for this).

 

Final Take

There is a tendency for investors to judge every asset class by its returns. Equities are expected to grow. REITs are expected to generate distributions. Bonds are expected to provide stability. It is only natural, then, to expect the cash component to chase the highest interest rates available.

 

But perhaps that is asking it to do something it was never meant to do.

 

One lesson I have learnt over the years is that every asset class should have a clearly defined purpose within a portfolio. Problems often arise when we expect one asset class to behave like another.

 

In the Bedokian Portfolio, the role of cash is simple. It is not there to outperform the other asset classes. It is there to provide a readily deployable pool of liquidity whenever investment opportunities arise. If it can earn a modest return while waiting, that is certainly welcome. But if chasing a slightly higher yield means sacrificing that flexibility, then perhaps the extra return is not worth the compromise after all.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

References

https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/money-marketfund.asp

https://www.sdic.org.sg

 

Doing Nothing Is Doing Something

One of the oft-heard questions from fellow investors during periods of market volatility was, "What should I do now?"

Picture generated by ChatGPT

It is a natural question. When markets move like a roller coaster, there is an expectation that investors should do something, e.g., buying, selling or making some sort of adjustments to their portfolios.

However, sometimes the best decision is to do none of the above.

While doing nothing is mostly thought of as being indecisive or lazy, but in investing, it could be a form of a deliberate action taken.

The Urge To Act

Humans are conditioned to equate action with progress, i.e., getting things done. Problems in our personal and working lives are taken care of by doing something, so when issues popped up, the urge to solve them is there.

The catch is that markets do not reward activity, but rather they reward good decisions.

Has Anything Really Changed?

Let us assume that an investment portfolio fell 10% over a few weeks.

Has the investor's financial objective changed?

Has the investment horizon shortened?

Have the businesses of the securities held permanently deteriorated?

Has the portfolio drifted sufficiently to warrant rebalancing?

If the answer to these questions is "no", then perhaps the investment plan requires no immediate action. The market has changed, but the portfolio itself may still be doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Knowing When To Act

This does not mean investors should never act.

There are occasions when action is necessary, like business fundamentals have deteriorated, asset class allocation drifted too far from the target percentages, and/or personal circumstances has changed. In such cases, being inactive may be the wrong decision to take.

The important point is that decisions should be driven by one's investment philosophy and methodology, not by the latest market headlines.

Takeaways

One of the least known lessons in investing is that not every situation demands a response.

There are times to buy. There are times to sell. And there are times to simply allow a well-constructed portfolio to continue doing its job.

Doing nothing is not the absence of a decision. When supported by a sound investment framework, it is a decision in its own right.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

Bob’s Portfolio Update: June 2026

Our Bedokian Portfolio test investor, Bob, had recently rebalanced his portfolio on 30 June 2026, which can be seen here.

At the end of last year, I had mentioned that Bob would be changing his real estate investment trust exchange traded fund, or REIT ETF (here). As observed, Bob usually rebalances his portfolio biannually: the first market day of the year in January and the last market day in June. On 30 June 2026, along with the usual SGD 5,000 cash injection, Bob had swapped out the REIT ETF with another. The timing was impeccable as that date is the last cum-dividend day for the replacement ETF (Amova-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT Index ETF, or ticker CFA).

Picture generated by Gemini

Why The Switch?

The previous counter in Bob’s holdings, the Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF (BYJ), was the first of its kind, listed in October 2016. When Bob started his investment journey in January 2017, the availability of the Phillip REIT ETF came at the right time to be the representative for his REIT allocation.

In December 2025, while preparing for rebalancing, Bob reviewed the portfolio and decided to change the REIT ETF. The major consideration points were:

• Cost – Total Expense Ratio (TER): BYJ’s TER is 1.70% while CFA’s TER is 0.55%. A lower TER meant that returns would be eroded lesser by fund expenses.

• Size – Assets Under Management (AUM): BYJ’s AUM is around SGD 10 million and CFA’s AUM is around SGD 712 million. A higher AUM allows better economics of scale in which a lower TER is one of them. Also, a higher AUM fund enjoys better liquidity in terms of a narrower bid/ask spread that is good for quick transaction and price discovery.

• Diversification – Holdings and Exposure: BYJ holds 30 REITs while CFA holds around 43 REITs. In terms of geographical and sector exposure, accordingly BYJ is three countries (Singapore, Australia and Hong Kong) with a huge skew towards retail (around 43%); CFA’s exposure is six countries (Singapore, Hong Kong and India among them) with at most 26% to a sector, therefore is more diversified.

• Dividend Yield: The 12-month dividend yield as of the fourth quarter of 2025 for BYJ and CFA are 4.23% and 5.36% respectively. A dividend yield of 5% and above is preferred as REITs are seen as the main income generator in the Bedokian Portfolio.

Why Not Others?

Good question. There is three other REIT ETFs listed, namely Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF (CLR), CSOP iEdge S-REIT Leaders ETF (SRT) and UOB APAC Green REIT ETF (GRN). Taking the four considerations in the previous section, CLR’s and SRT’s TER are slightly higher (both 0.6%) and consisted only of Singapore-listed REITs. GRN also has a higher TER (0.82%) and has the lowest dividend yield among the five (3.88%). 

However, if asked for an alternative to CFA, Bob would likely choose CLR for its larger AUM and higher dividend yield.

Takeaways

Bob's switch from BYJ to CFA is less about chasing performance and more about maintaining portfolio efficiency. A lower TER, broader diversification and a higher distribution yield made CFA the more suitable candidate for the REIT allocation today.

The key takeaway is that passive portfolio management, as practiced, is not a "set-and-forget" exercise. While the overall framework remains unchanged, the securities used to implement it may occasionally need to be reviewed and updated as new securities become available.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in CFA.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

References

https://phillipfunds.com/phillip-sgx-apac-dividend-leaders-reit-etf/

https://sg.amova-am.com/general/funds/detail/amova-straitstrading-asia-ex-japan-reit-index-etf-sgd-class

https://www.reitas.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SGX-Research-SREIT-Property-Trusts-Chartbook-Q4_2025.pdf

The Seven Questions Of Investing

Many investors spend a great deal of time asking which share, real estate investment trust (REIT), bond or commodity to buy. Far fewer spend time asking the questions that should come before that decision.

Picture generated by Gemini

In my opinion, investing can be distilled into seven simple questions:

• Why invest?

• When to invest?

• How to invest?

• What to invest?

• Where to invest?

• Which to invest?

• Who am I investing for?

 

Why Invest?

Investing is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

Some invest to build passive income. Others invest for retirement, financial independence, wealth accumulation, or simply to preserve purchasing power against inflation. A clear objective gives direction, and more importantly, it helps determine whether a strategy is suitable in the first place.

 

If one does not know where he/she is going, it is difficult to even take that first step.

 

When to Invest?

This is the question many people tend to overthink.

 

For the long run, the better time to invest is usually when one is ready with sufficient capital and a clear plan. Waiting for the “perfect” market condition often means waiting for a very long time. As the adage goes, “The best time to invest was 20 years ago. The second best time is now”.

 

That said, money needed for emergencies or short-term expenses should stay outside the investment portfolio. For everything else, systematic investing is usually better than market timing.

 

How to Invest?

This concerns one’s investment philosophy and methodology.

 

Some investors prefer passive investing through exchange traded funds. Others select individual securities. Some favour value investing, some dividend investing, while others focus on growth. There are also those who combine multiple approaches, like myself.

 

The best methodology is not necessarily the one with the highest historical returns, but the one that can be consistently and comfortably followed through both good and bad markets.

 

What to Invest?

This is the question of asset allocation.

 

Asset classes such as equities, REITs, bonds, commodities and cash each have different risk and return characteristics. An investor’s main task is to decide which of these classes belong in the portfolio.

 

A basic two-class mix of equities and bonds may be enough for some. The Bedokian Portfolio, however, utilises all five to achieve a more balanced and diversified portfolio.

 

Where to Invest?

Once the asset classes have been determined, the next question is where to obtain that exposure.

 

Investors today can access markets all over the world, from Singapore to the United States, and from banks to technology. The answer depends on factors such as diversification needs, familiarity with the markets and investment objectives.

 

An investor may decide to invest in equities, but that equity exposure can come from many different places.

 

Which to Invest?

Only after answering the previous questions should security selection begin.

 

This is the question most people start with, but it is really one of the later questions that should be asked.

 

The objective is not to find the perfect security, but to identify securities that are suitable for the role they are meant to play within the portfolio. A security should be selected because it fits the framework, not because it happens to be popular at the moment.

 

Who Am I Investing For?

Most investors begin by investing for themselves.

 

As life progresses, however, the answer may expand to include a spouse, children, parents or even future generations. For some, investing eventually becomes less about wealth accumulation and more about wealth preservation and legacy.

 

This question may influence portfolio risk, insurance needs, retirement planning and succession arrangements. After all, investing is ultimately about people rather than numbers.

 

Conclusion

Many investing mistakes occur because investors jump straight to “Which to invest?” while neglecting the questions that come before it.

 

A share, REIT or bond is merely a tool. Whether that tool is appropriate depends on the objective, methodology, asset classes, markets and ultimately the people involved.

 

For those who have yet to embark on the investing journey, whether for oneself or for one’s acquaintance/friend/family member, it is worth asking these seven questions in sequence. The answers may not guarantee success, but they will provide a clearer framework for making investment decisions and building a portfolio that serves its intended purpose.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

Gold And Silver's Moment: Was It A Spike Or A Shift?

In my year-end review for 2025 (link here), I had written that the best story of the year did not come from equities, real estate investment trusts, or bonds, but from gold and silver. Almost half a year on, with both metals having given back a meaningful chunk of those gains, let us ask the question: was that a temporary spike, or the start of something more lasting?

 

Picture generated by Meta AI

The Bull Run

2025 was an extraordinary year for the two precious metals; Gold gained roughly 65%, and silver did even better, surging around 150%¹. The drivers were fairly clear: record central bank buying, multiple Fed rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns, etc. Silver's rally was further fuelled by a tight physical market following an October 2025 short squeeze. By late January 2026, gold had briefly touched above USD 5,500, and sentiment in the space was, by most accounts, euphoric.

The Correction

However, euphoria rarely lasts. On 30 January 2026, both metals saw their sharpest daily decline of the entire run, seemingly triggered by news of the incoming Federal Reserve chairperson, though heightened speculation by many retail investors also played a part².

This is, in some sense, simply the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) doing what it has always done; fluctuating, sometimes sharply, as these two move at different speeds relative to each other. I had written before that the GSR has ranged from a high of around 1:126 in 2019 to a low of about 1:31 back in 2011 over the past three decades (link here). Silver's steeper rise and steeper fall relative to gold through this cycle is consistent with that history. As mentioned then, the popular "80/50 Rule" suggests rotating from gold into silver when the ratio climbs above 80, and the reverse when it falls toward 50. Whether the ratio has moved meaningfully enough to warrant a look at this is something worth checking against current prices, for those who utilise it.

Spike, or Shift?

I would lean toward this being a reset rather than a reversal, though as always, I hold this view loosely.

Gold's institutional demand looks intact. A recent June 2026 World Gold Council survey found a record share of central banks planning to grow their gold reserves over the next 12 months³.

Silver's underlying supply-demand scenario remains supportive. The market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with demand continuing to exceed total supply⁴. Supply growth is also constrained because most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metals, limiting the industry's ability to respond quickly to higher prices. Furthermore, its industrial use, particularly in electronics and the burgeoning sector of solar energy, gives it a strong impetus of demand.

In my opinion, annual gains of 65% in gold and 150% in silver were never going to be sustainable. Markets move in cycles, and when an asset class becomes too popular quickly, expectations often run ahead of fundamentals. A period of consolidation should therefore come as no surprise.

For the Bedokian Portfolio

The eBook has always set out a 5–10% commodities allocation, with gold and silver forming the bulk of that make-up. Nothing about this correction changes that target. If anything, the same point I made when silver previously went through a sharp pullback applies just as well here: if commodities had already been part of the portfolio, this is simply a matter of rebalancing: averaging up or down the holdings, whether through physical bullion or paper exposure, back toward the desired target. For anyone still building a first toehold into the asset class, taking that first step matters more than trying to time the exact bottom.

As I had mentioned in this post, and I will say it again: There is no way to tell how high, or how low, gold and silver will go from here. In the meantime, let us enjoy the ride.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in physical gold and silver, and in a silver ETF.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

1 – A standout year for gold and silver. LSEG. 13 Jan 2026. https://www.lseg.com/en/insights/ftse-russell/a-standout-year-for-gold-and-silver (accessed 20 Jun 2026) 

2 – Gold extends biggest fall in over a decade, rattling Asia stock markets. The Straits Times. 2 Feb 2026. https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/gold-extends-biggest-fall-in-over-a-decade (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

3 – Central banks set to step up gold buying over the next year. World Gold Council. 16 Jun 2026. https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/central-banks-set-step-gold-buying-over-next-year (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

4 – Devitt, Polina. Silver faces sixth year of deficit with stock drawdown raising squeeze risks, research shows. Reuters. 15 Apr 2026. https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/silver-faces-sixth-year-deficit-with-stock-drawdown-raising-squeeze-risks-2026-04-15/ (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

Are S-REITs Boring Now?

There were some comments floating in investment chat groups and forums that Singapore real estate investment trusts (S-REITs) have become rather boring. Their prices have largely moved sideways over the past few months, and the excitement that accompanied the anticipated interest rate cuts seems to have faded.

It is understandable why such a view exists. Many investors had expected the rate-cut cycle that began in 2025 to provide a stronger tailwind for REIT prices. Instead, the asset class has spent much of its time “heading nowhere”.

However, "boring" does not necessarily mean "bad".

 

Picture generated by ChatGPT

Why Are S-REITs Moving Sideways?

The most obvious reason is the interest rate environment. While interest rates have come down from their peaks, the pace of future cuts has become less certain. Markets are increasingly expecting rates to remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated. As REITs are generally sensitive to interest rates, this has reduced some of the optimism that fuelled the sector's recovery previously.

Another factor is the strength of the Singapore dollar (SGD). For S-REITs with overseas assets, a stronger local currency means that foreign rental income translates into fewer SGD when distributions are paid. This creates a headwind even when the underlying properties continue to perform well.

But The Fundamentals Remain Intact

What is often overlooked is that many S-REITs continue to report healthy operating metrics.

Occupancies remain generally stable. Rental reversions remain positive in several property sectors. Debt refinancing pressures have also eased compared to the period (2022 to 2023) when interest rates were rising aggressively.

In other words, the challenges faced by many REITs today are mostly financing and currency-related rather than operational.

The Bedokian's Take

I had previously written about whether REITs were "doomed" during the height of the interest rate hiking cycle (link here). My answer then was no, and my answer today remains the same.

The role of REITs within the Bedokian Portfolio serves two main purposes; the first is income generation. REITs are designed to distribute the bulk of their earnings to unitholders, making them useful financial instruments for investors seeking passive income.

The second is diversification. REITs provide exposure to real estate through a listed security (equity/property hybrid), giving them a different risk-and-return profile compared to the other asset classes (i.e., equities, bonds, commodities and cash).

This does not mean investors should rush out and load up on REITs. As always, diversification remains important. The more relevant question is whether one's current REIT allocation remains consistent with the preferred portfolio weighting.

If REITs have fallen below their target allocation due to recent underperformance, then directing new capital towards the asset class may simply be a form of portfolio rebalancing. If allocations remain broadly on target, then patience may be the better course of action.

The restaurant may have a shorter queue than it did two years ago. That does not mean the food has become worse. It may simply mean that fewer people are paying attention. For the long-term income investor, that is sometimes the most interesting time to take a closer look.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer