Gold And Silver's Moment: Was It A Spike Or A Shift?

In my year-end review for 2025 (link here), I had written that the best story of the year did not come from equities, real estate investment trusts, or bonds, but from gold and silver. Almost half a year on, with both metals having given back a meaningful chunk of those gains, let us ask the question: was that a temporary spike, or the start of something more lasting?

 

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The Bull Run

2025 was an extraordinary year for the two precious metals; Gold gained roughly 65%, and silver did even better, surging around 150%¹. The drivers were fairly clear: record central bank buying, multiple Fed rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns, etc. Silver's rally was further fuelled by a tight physical market following an October 2025 short squeeze. By late January 2026, gold had briefly touched above USD 5,500, and sentiment in the space was, by most accounts, euphoric.

The Correction

However, euphoria rarely lasts. On 30 January 2026, both metals saw their sharpest daily decline of the entire run, seemingly triggered by news of the incoming Federal Reserve chairperson, though heightened speculation by many retail investors also played a part².

This is, in some sense, simply the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) doing what it has always done; fluctuating, sometimes sharply, as these two move at different speeds relative to each other. I had written before that the GSR has ranged from a high of around 1:126 in 2019 to a low of about 1:31 back in 2011 over the past three decades (link here). Silver's steeper rise and steeper fall relative to gold through this cycle is consistent with that history. As mentioned then, the popular "80/50 Rule" suggests rotating from gold into silver when the ratio climbs above 80, and the reverse when it falls toward 50. Whether the ratio has moved meaningfully enough to warrant a look at this is something worth checking against current prices, for those who utilise it.

Spike, or Shift?

I would lean toward this being a reset rather than a reversal, though as always, I hold this view loosely.

Gold's institutional demand looks intact. A recent June 2026 World Gold Council survey found a record share of central banks planning to grow their gold reserves over the next 12 months³.

Silver's underlying supply-demand scenario remains supportive. The market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with demand continuing to exceed total supply⁴. Supply growth is also constrained because most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metals, limiting the industry's ability to respond quickly to higher prices. Furthermore, its industrial use, particularly in electronics and the burgeoning sector of solar energy, gives it a strong impetus of demand.

In my opinion, annual gains of 65% in gold and 150% in silver were never going to be sustainable. Markets move in cycles, and when an asset class becomes too popular quickly, expectations often run ahead of fundamentals. A period of consolidation should therefore come as no surprise.

For the Bedokian Portfolio

The eBook has always set out a 5–10% commodities allocation, with gold and silver forming the bulk of that make-up. Nothing about this correction changes that target. If anything, the same point I made when silver previously went through a sharp pullback applies just as well here: if commodities had already been part of the portfolio, this is simply a matter of rebalancing: averaging up or down the holdings, whether through physical bullion or paper exposure, back toward the desired target. For anyone still building a first toehold into the asset class, taking that first step matters more than trying to time the exact bottom.

As I had mentioned in this post, and I will say it again: There is no way to tell how high, or how low, gold and silver will go from here. In the meantime, let us enjoy the ride.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in physical gold and silver, and in a silver ETF.

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1 – A standout year for gold and silver. LSEG. 13 Jan 2026. https://www.lseg.com/en/insights/ftse-russell/a-standout-year-for-gold-and-silver (accessed 20 Jun 2026) 

2 – Gold extends biggest fall in over a decade, rattling Asia stock markets. The Straits Times. 2 Feb 2026. https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/gold-extends-biggest-fall-in-over-a-decade (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

3 – Central banks set to step up gold buying over the next year. World Gold Council. 16 Jun 2026. https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/central-banks-set-step-gold-buying-over-next-year (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

4 – Devitt, Polina. Silver faces sixth year of deficit with stock drawdown raising squeeze risks, research shows. Reuters. 15 Apr 2026. https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/silver-faces-sixth-year-deficit-with-stock-drawdown-raising-squeeze-risks-2026-04-15/ (accessed 20 Jun 2026)

Are S-REITs Boring Now?

There were some comments floating in investment chat groups and forums that Singapore real estate investment trusts (S-REITs) have become rather boring. Their prices have largely moved sideways over the past few months, and the excitement that accompanied the anticipated interest rate cuts seems to have faded.

It is understandable why such a view exists. Many investors had expected the rate-cut cycle that began in 2025 to provide a stronger tailwind for REIT prices. Instead, the asset class has spent much of its time “heading nowhere”.

However, "boring" does not necessarily mean "bad".

 

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Why Are S-REITs Moving Sideways?

The most obvious reason is the interest rate environment. While interest rates have come down from their peaks, the pace of future cuts has become less certain. Markets are increasingly expecting rates to remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated. As REITs are generally sensitive to interest rates, this has reduced some of the optimism that fuelled the sector's recovery previously.

Another factor is the strength of the Singapore dollar (SGD). For S-REITs with overseas assets, a stronger local currency means that foreign rental income translates into fewer SGD when distributions are paid. This creates a headwind even when the underlying properties continue to perform well.

But The Fundamentals Remain Intact

What is often overlooked is that many S-REITs continue to report healthy operating metrics.

Occupancies remain generally stable. Rental reversions remain positive in several property sectors. Debt refinancing pressures have also eased compared to the period (2022 to 2023) when interest rates were rising aggressively.

In other words, the challenges faced by many REITs today are mostly financing and currency-related rather than operational.

The Bedokian's Take

I had previously written about whether REITs were "doomed" during the height of the interest rate hiking cycle (link here). My answer then was no, and my answer today remains the same.

The role of REITs within the Bedokian Portfolio serves two main purposes; the first is income generation. REITs are designed to distribute the bulk of their earnings to unitholders, making them useful financial instruments for investors seeking passive income.

The second is diversification. REITs provide exposure to real estate through a listed security (equity/property hybrid), giving them a different risk-and-return profile compared to the other asset classes (i.e., equities, bonds, commodities and cash).

This does not mean investors should rush out and load up on REITs. As always, diversification remains important. The more relevant question is whether one's current REIT allocation remains consistent with the preferred portfolio weighting.

If REITs have fallen below their target allocation due to recent underperformance, then directing new capital towards the asset class may simply be a form of portfolio rebalancing. If allocations remain broadly on target, then patience may be the better course of action.

The restaurant may have a shorter queue than it did two years ago. That does not mean the food has become worse. It may simply mean that fewer people are paying attention. For the long-term income investor, that is sometimes the most interesting time to take a closer look.

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The U-Shaped Trading Day

A conversation with a fellow investor some time back got me thinking. The investor had placed a buy order for a United States (U.S.) listed counter shortly after the market opened, only to find that the price filled was higher than what was expected based on the previous session's closing price. There was no major news overnight, nor had the company announced anything significant. Naturally, the investor wondered what had happened.

As it turns out, this is not an uncommon phenomenon in the U.S. markets.

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If one were to observe the volatility of U.S. equities throughout a typical trading day, a pattern tends to emerge. Volatility is usually the highest during the opening period, gradually declines as the day progresses, and then picks up again near the market close. When plotted on a chart, the shape looks like the letter "U", hence the term "U-shaped trading day".

This observation is not unique to today's markets. Researchers have been studying intraday trading patterns for decades, and numerous studies have found that volatility and trading volume tend to be highest near the market open and close. The fact that this pattern has continued to appear across different market conditions implies that it is not merely a short-term anomaly, but rather a natural result of how investors and traders react to new information throughout the trading day.

The reason behind this is fairly intuitive. When the market opens, investors and traders are reacting to developments that occurred after the previous day's close. These could include earnings reports, economic data releases, geopolitical developments, etc. Since many market participants are trying to adjust their positions at the same time, price movements tend to be larger.

As the trading day progresses, much of this information gets absorbed into market prices. Activity typically slows down, resulting in lower volatility during the middle of the trading session. Towards the close, however, trading activity tends to increase once again as traders square off positions, market participants prepare for the next trading day, among other reasons.

For Singapore investors, this has some practical implications. The most volatile period of the U.S. trading day occurs shortly after the market opens, which corresponds to around 9:30 PM Singapore time (or 10:30 PM during Daylight Saving Time). Coincidentally, this is also the period when many local investors are most likely to be awake and actively monitoring the markets.

This means that those placing market orders during the opening period may occasionally experience larger-than-expected price movements. In such situations, limit orders may be more appropriate, particularly if one has already determined a reasonable valuation range for the counter being purchased.

It is also worth keeping an eye on major economic announcements such as inflation data, employment figures and central bank decisions. These events can significantly increase volatility, not just for individual counters but for the broader market as well.

The Bedokian's Take

The U-shaped trading day is an interesting market characteristic to be aware of, but for long-term investors, its significance should not be overstated.

A difference of a few cents in the purchase price may feel frustrating at the point of execution, but over an investment horizon measured in years or even decades, such differences are insignificant compared to the overall performance of the underlying fundamentals. The quality of the company, its growth prospects and the valuation paid remain far more important considerations.

Still, there is no harm in understanding how markets behave. Knowing that volatility tends to be elevated at the open allows investors to make more informed decisions when entering positions. At the very least, it may help avoid unnecessary surprises when an order gets filled at a price that is not expected.

Related post

Transact During Trading Hours Or Extended Hours?

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Apps Update (v 1.0.2 beta)

 

Click on the picture above to go to the Apps page! 

The Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator apps had gone through an upgrade (v 1.0.2 beta) that allows the results to be exported as a PDF file, saving the effort for the need to do screenshots.

After the query is done and the results shown, a button appears below the counter name (see Fig. 1):

Fig. 1: "Download PDF Report" button shown below the counter after the query is executed (click for larger view).

 

Click on the "Download PDF Report" and a two-page PDF report is generated (see Fig. 2): 

 Fig. 2: Two-page PDF report sample from the query in Fig. 1 (click for larger view).

  

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in OCBC.

 

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Portfolio Pivoting - Supplementary

Over the years in the management of one’s investments, there would likely be occasions where the portfolio would be changed or takes another form, and an apt word to describe this is pivoting. I had shared a post about the pivoting of our Bedokian Portfolio (Portfolio Pivoting).

 

Picture generated by Gemini

 

Contrary to what most people think, portfolio pivoting is not about tactical asset allocation, where the make-up of the various asset classes goes in accordance with the prevailing or projected market and/or economic cycles, nor a huge switch from, say, 100% equities to 100% bonds, but rather a strategic decision based on foreseeable changes in one’s long-term objectives, while maintaining a similar mix of assets. A good example would be the reduction of growth equities and shift to more income-generating equities and bonds to prep for one’s retirement phase of life.

In our case, we pivoted to a slightly aggressive stance as we brought forward our step-down age that necessitated a quicker realization of our target amount. Even so, the new step-down year is still some time away, hence the pivot is a well-thought out, deliberate action taken, not an overnight whim. Once the objective is set, some planning and patience are needed when executing the pivoting itself. 

For instance, using our example, we are reducing the bond component in our Bedokian Portfolio, and that meant the safety buffer to the volatile nature of equities and real estate investment trusts (REITs) is lowered. However, it must be carried out as the change of strategic goals required this move.

The reduction itself is not done in one fell swoop. As with most things in portfolio management, gradual execution is preferred over abrupt action (hence it took us between six and nine months to complete). Rather than liquidating the bond holdings outright, the approach taken is to redirect new capital injections (i.e., from our own cash and dividends/interest received) away from bonds and toward the equities and REIT components instead. Over time, and without the need for hasty selling, the weightings shift naturally in the intended direction.

It is also worth noting that pivoting, by its nature, introduces a transitional period where the portfolio may not perfectly reflect either the old or the new target allocation. This is normal and to be expected. The important thing is that the direction of travel is clear, and that each portfolio action, whether a new purchase, a reinvestment of dividends, or an occasional rebalancing, nudges the overall mix closer to the desired end state.

A question that sometimes arises is: how does one know when a pivot is truly warranted, as opposed to being a reaction to external noise? In my humble opinion, the clearest signal is whether the underlying personal circumstance has changed in a meaningful and lasting way: a revised retirement timeline, a significant shift in income, or a change in family obligations, etc. If none of these apply, then what feels like a need to pivot may simply be the discomfort of a volatile market period, which portfolio rebalancing is better suited to address.

Portfolio pivoting, done thoughtfully and for the right reasons, is a natural part of the investor's journey. The key, as always, is that the evolution is led by clarity of purpose, and not by the noise of the day.

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Keeping Bonds From Start To Finish

A thought experiment just came up while I was overseas a few days ago, and it goes something like this: is it a good idea to hold individual bond securities from start to finish?

The bonds in question are not from corporates, nor are they perpetuals, but rather government treasury bonds, specifically the Singapore Government Securities (SGS) of at least 10 years’ tenure. This means auctioning for them at the start, collect coupon payouts and keep it till maturity, regardless of what the prices and bond yields are along the entirety of the bond duration.

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Typically, bond returns are viewed as lower to that of equities’, and that made them looked like “boring” investment vehicles. Still, as per the Bedokian Portfolio’s diversification ethos, bonds are a must-have in the make-up. Since it is a permanent fixture, there is no harm in having SGS in one’s portfolio, and possibly as a core holding within the asset class.

While there are risks involving with bonds, some could be overlooked as the probability of them happening is minimal, like default and call risks, given the current high rating of SGS, and liquidity risk, which is negligible as it is planned to hold it till the end. The primary one which I see it would be inflation risk, i.e., the risk of the coupon rate being lower than the prevailing inflation rate.

Singapore’s inflation rate for the past 10 years stood at around 1.72%, with 30 years at 1.68%¹, and that is relatively low as compared to the United States’ (3.22% for 10 years and 2.53% for 30 years²). Though we may not know how the inflation rates will be like in the future, taking past data as reference and to mitigate inflation risk, a coupon rate of at least 2% is expected.

The above settles the theoretical aspects. The practical part, however, is a little bit tedious to maneuver around. First up would be the availability of 10-year and above tenure SGS; from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) website, for the year 2026, there are only four that has a period of at least 10 years, and it seems this is the average issuance looking back the past years’ figures. On top of the deemed low frequency of the issuance of such durations, one would still need to bid for it and, depending on the prevailing macroeconomic situations, one may not be able to get the 2% yield after the auctions close.

Of course, there is the option of getting the bond from the secondary market immediately after it got listed, but the volume transacted is quite low if you monitor the listings on the Singapore Exchange website, so there is liquidity risk, on another context.

By now, some would have the idea of using another MAS-issued instrument: the Singapore Savings Bond (SSB). Issued every month, the 10-year average return and the yearly interest rate are made public, thus reducing the hassles of applying for the SGS bonds. The only limit that SSB has, and SGS do not, is the SGD 200,000 ownership cap per individual, so those with larger portfolios may need to look for other securities to fill in their bond component after the quota amount is reached. Another point about SSB is that they only come in 10-year tenures.

Whether is it SGS or SSB, or both, they are classified as investment grade bonds with their high credit ratings, and these are suitable for inclusion within the Bedokian Portfolio.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in SSB.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

 

1 – Lim, Abram. Average Annual Inflation Rate in Singapore (2026). 28 Feb 2026. https://smartwealth.sg/average-inflation-rate-singapore/ (accessed 22 May 2026). Inflation rates used are CPI All-Items.

2 – U.S. Inflation Rate by Year (1913-2026). Macrotrends. https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year (accessed 22 May 2026). Average calculated for 10-year: 2016 – 2025; for 30-year: 1996 – 2025.

 

Transact During Trading Hours Or Extended Hours?

Newcomers to the U.S. markets will notice the option to trade during extended hours, a feature that is not present in Singapore markets. Regular U.S. trading occurs from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time or ET (which is 9:30 PM / 10:30 PM to 4:00 AM / 5:00 AM Singapore Time, depending on whether Daylight Savings Time is observed), while extended trading hours are typically pre-market from 4:00 AM to 9:30 AM ET and after-hours from 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET. These sessions allow market participants to react to news and earnings reports that typically happen outside the standard trading window.

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There are several benefits to transact in extended hours: Investors can quickly respond to breaking news, company earnings, or global events that take place beyond regular market hours, enabling them to seize opportunities or manage risks before the main session begins. Extended hours also make it easier for those who cannot trade during traditional market times to participate.

On the downside, trading during extended hours usually means dealing with lower liquidity, which leads to wider bid-ask spreads and increased volatility and potentially resulting in less favourable prices. Not every security may be available for trading, and orders might be filled more slowly or with less certainty compared to normal trading sessions.

The Bedokian’s Take

Considering the advantages and disadvantages highlighted above, all of it could boil down to just one main reason: price discovery. The more market participants there are for a particular counter, the more bid and ask data points are available for investors and traders to see and act upon, and this happens (as one can guessed it) during trading hours. This in my opinion gives a proper valuation and a feel of sentiment level of the counter.

Still, the low liquidity and wider spreads in the extended hours could give a huge plus especially when trying to buy at a deemed lower price and/or sell at a deemed higher price, which works when the buy-in price came out higher and/or the sell-out came out lower upon market opening, The flip side, however, if the opposite happens, then one would be frustrated if he/she had bidded higher or asked lower in the extended hours. In this case, as long as the price bought/sold is within one’s reasonable valuation, then it is not much of an issue to fret on the overpaying/underselling woes since the focus is long-term (unless it is a trading play).

 

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