Big (Tech) Week

Wednesday and Thursday saw the quarterly earnings report for big tech companies, including those that we have in our Bedokian Portfolio, namely Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. Let us go through these four companies’ earnings reports and what is The Bedokian’s take on them.

Picture generated by ChatGPT

Alphabet

Earnings per share (EPS): USD 2.62 adjusted vs USD 2.63 expected.

Revenue: USD 109.9 billion vs USD 107.2 billion expected.

Other points of note: Missed expectation for YouTube advertising.

Amazon

EPS: USD 2.78 vs USD 1.64

Revenue: USD 181.52 billion vs USD 177.3 billion expected.

Other points of note: Web services and advertising beating expectations.

Apple

EPS: USD 2.01 vs USD 1.95 expected

Revenue: USD 111.18 billion vs USD 109.66 billion expected

Other points of note: Revenue across all segments had beaten their expected amounts except for iPhone.

 

Microsoft

EPS: USD 4.27 adjusted vs USD 4.06 expected

Revenue: USD 82.89 billion vs USD 81.39 billion expected

Other points of note: Mixed segment results, with Cloud and Productivity and Business segments higher, while More Personal Computing unit lower.

 

The Bedokian’s Take

Cloud plays an important part in the revenues of Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, with all three dominating the market at a combined 63% market share as of the last quarter of 2025¹, and this dominance is very likely to continue after the numbers from the latest earnings report. Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue had seen an increase of 63%, while Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft’s Azure (and other cloud services) experienced a rise of 28% and 40% in their revenues, respectively.

The common narrative that binds all mentioned companies here is, as easily guessed by most, artificial intelligence (AI), though there are variances in their strategies on approaching it; Alphabet is using it to enhance their existing consumer applications, Amazon is providing them as tools to their clients, and Microsoft utilises it for their office productivity suite.

For Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, capital expenditure (capex) on AI infrastructure is becoming the norm, with the three of them projected to spend close to 0.7 trillion USD combined this year. The exponential trend of AI, from answering common questions and creation of entertaining animations and videos, to possible disruptions in some sectors (e.g. software services by Claude), and others, may provide enough demand for the spending.

 

Apple looked to be the weakest in this aspect as they has yet to develop (and possibly may not) their own AI, but they are entering into discussions and/or partnerships with other AI providers like Open AI’s ChatGPT, Alphabet’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude to power its Siri, leveraging on their still growing user base of Apple products and services.

Overall, the runway of growth is still paved for Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, with cloud and AI providing the twin engines for these three companies. Though they could be seen as competitors in the same product and service segment, there is still differentiation in their other, albeit original core, businesses, which they are already a major player in, like search (Alphabet), office productivity (Microsoft) and online shopping (Amazon). Therefore, investing in these three companies could be seen as not having a concentrated position on a sector, but rather on their own individual merits.

As for Apple, the incoming change of its CEO would signal the beginning of a new era for the company and based on the specialization of the new head honcho, we could probably see more hardware and software focused integrated products coming to increase the already huge number of users.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft.

Try out the Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator screening app for FREE. You can use it as a web page or save it as an app-like bookmark on your home screen of your computer, tablet or mobile for faster access.

Disclaimer

All earnings figures are sourced from CNBC unless otherwise stated.

1 – Richter, Felix. Big Three Hold Dominant Lead In Accelerating Cloud Market. Statista. 9 Feb 2026. https://www.statista.com/chart/18819/worldwide-market-share-of-leading-cloud-infrastructure-service-providers/ (accessed 30 Apr 2026).

 

Apps Update

Click on the picture above to go to the Apps page! 

The Growth Indicator, Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator apps had gone through an upgrade (v 1.0.1 beta) with the addition of AI generated insights for further fundamental analysis. This is in line with The Bedokian Portfolio’s fundamental analysis framework that incorporates the environmental factors and economic conditions¹.

For both the Growth Indicator and Equities Indicator, the AI generated insights consisted of three sections, namely: Market Share, Sectoral/Industry SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) Analysis and Macro Factors. The former two covers the environmental factors analysis part while the latter covers the economic conditions portion. As for the S-REITs Indicator, only the SWOT Analysis and Macro Factors are featured. While the insights displayed are relatively brief, they provide a direction for the investor to engage in deep dive for further fundamental analysis. 

If one may have noticed, the financial statement part is still limited to the selection guidelines stated in the eBook²; this is to prevent clutter and “information overload” on the apps, therefore it is preferred that one look through other sources for detailed numbers. 

Below are sample screenshots of the new version:

 Growth Indicator screener as seen from a computer (click for larger view).

 

S-REITs Indicator screener as seen from a mobile phone (click for larger view).

 

Equities Indicator screener as seen from a tablet (click for larger view).

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in Apple, OCBC and Frasers Centrepoint Trust.

 

Disclaimer

1 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Ed), chapter 11

2 – ibid, chapter 12

“I Told You So”

How many times have we heard from some investor or trader telling you personally or through some social media application the famous words “I told you so”. 

Picture generated by Meta AI

It could be irritating and disturbing at times when we were told of such words; irritating that it may be construed as a conceited statement, and disturbing to the point that one may doubt his/her investing/trading thesis and viewpoints.

All these could be boiled down to one thing: the assumed ability to predict the markets. A lot of us are trying to predict the markets, but no matter how hard we work on it, it is very hard to even tell what would happen eventually.

We could get things right when the planets align to our favour, which to most events it will occur. The difficult part is to know when it manifests. Throughout the years I have had heard of hyperbolic predictions and somewhat they did come true, to which I give them credit as some had carried out research and used data to back them up. The issue that I (and I guess many of us) have is the ego that accompanies the right prediction.

To me, it is alright to announce the right calls made, as it is a form of sharing learning points with others, and on the individual level, to gain a sense of achievement and recognition. The negative part is the haughtiness in claiming the credit, and to the point of dissing and belittling others.

Though it may hurt especially when the comments are directed at one personally, there is no need to be bothered by such situations. The foreseen event did happen at that point of time. The next question is how long the event would last. If it is security price, it may be at that anticipated price level until likely the next market cycle, or if it is a trend/product (e.g., artificial intelligence/iPhone), it would become an evolution after the initial revolution; both scenarios would end up tapering to a “nothing much to shout about” phase.

Investing (and trading) is a long game, and those who could play the game longer, wins. As what my ex-colleague and investor once quipped, “Only time will tell”, on knowing who would prevail in their desired prediction outcomes.

Related posts

“A Broken Clock Is Correct Twice A Day”

The Only Answerable Person On One’s Investment Is To Oneself

All About Price: The Concept Of Freehold

This is part of my intermittent series on price, one of the most important and commonly encountered considerations in investing and trading. For this post, I will be touching on a relatively local concept called “freehold”.

Picture generated by Meta AI

 

“Freehold” on Securities

While it is a term associated with properties, the word “freehold” in securities investing meant that the returns, be it capital and/or income via dividends/distributions, had covered the initial amount of the investment. Any further gains from the securities in question were treated as “free”.

The origins of the use of the word in this context were unknown to me, but the best I could surmise was probably a mix of the view of an investment paying it off itself, and the sense of freedom of doing whatever one wants with the extra returns. It is akin to having a stock price achieving a “two-bagger” status, i.e., being doubled in its value.

What to Do After

Though the freehold status has been achieved (and enjoying the moment of “full of win” feeling), the next immediate thought would be what one is going to do about it. A common approach would be to sell off the excess above the initial investment or deploy later dividends/distributions received into other asset classes or securities, but this action would be very much dependent on circumstances. 

For example, if there is further room for the share price to grow, or if even after reaching a two-bagger status, the book value of the share is not reached, then it is wiser to keep them in place. Another is that if there are no alternative or incentivising assets or securities to invest in, and one’s portfolio is not due or relevant for rebalancing, then it is prudent to just leave it as it is. 

If one has multiple portfolios (i.e., the Portfolio Multiverse concept), the choice of divesting the excess and channel them to other portfolios is plausible (e.g., trading, CPF, SRS, etc.). This could work for dividends/distributions received, too, since they are cash in nature and liquid enough to move around.

The Bedokian’s Experience

One of the rare moments which compels me to practice the “selling of excess” was our partial divestment of Apple and using the proceeds to initiate a trading (and subsequently investing) position into Nvidia back in March 2024 (which I shared here). Ironically, in the same link, I had also shared that we had bought back Apple (it had hit our entry price) around a month and a half later after selling some away. 

On hindsight, it turned out to be a good move as our first Nvidia tranche had returned more than 100% (freehold!) while it would just gain around 50% had the capital remained in Apple.

 

Check out the other posts in my All About Price series.

All About Price: Introduction & Valuation of Value 

All About Price: Buyer/Seller Remorse and Premorse

All About Price: The 52-Week High/Low

All About Price: Reversion To The Mean

All About Price: Bottom Fishing

All About Price: The (Price) Margin Of Safety

All About Price: The Price Ratios

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in Apple and Nvidia.

Disclaimer

More Screener Apps Introduced!

       

Over the weekend I had released the Growth Indicator stock screener app, and now I am releasing two more apps for use, for FREE.

 

 

Click on the pictures above to use the respective apps!

 

Introducing the Equities Indicator app for use on value/dividend counters, and the S-REITs Indicator app for use on Singapore-listed REITs. Similar to the Growth Indicator app, you could either use it as a webpage or bookmark it on your desktop/mobile like an app.

 

All three apps worked the same; just input the counter name and see if it fulfils the selection guidelines highlighted in The Bedokian Portfolio eBook¹.

 

Below are sample screenshots of a query output on the Equities Indicator and S-REITs Indicator apps:

 

Screenshot of Equities Indicator app (click for a larger view)

  

Screenshot of S-REITs Indicator app (click for a larger view)

 

For these two apps, the display results will take a little bit longer as the app algorithms are fetching real time data and performing some calculations in the background, hence some patience is appreciated.

 

As usual, these apps are for educational and reference purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. A thorough fundamental analysis is required before making the decision.

 

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in Haw Par and Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust.

 

Disclaimer

1 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Ed), p103-107

 

Introducing The Growth Indicator App

Click on the picture above to access the app!

In The Bedokian Portfolio eBook, I had written about guidelines on selecting value, income and growth equities, real estate investment trusts, etc., using financial data like price-to-earnings ratio, dividend yield, free cash flow, etc.

 

Though there are screeners available out there to assist in the research, it could be tedious sometimes when some information is not readily available.

 

With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), specifically in the field of large language models and scripting powers, I had developed an app that could generate a graphical screener akin to traffic light signals in simplifying and visualizing the selection guidelines for growth investing¹.

 

And I would like to introduce the Growth Indicator app, right in our newly created Apps page link above.

 

Below is a screenshot of a query output for Microsoft on the Growth Indicator (click for a larger view):

 

And yes, the app is FREE.

 

However, do understand that this app is for educational and reference purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. A thorough fundamental analysis is needed, especially on other quantitative (e.g., further analysis on income statement, market share percentages, etc.) and qualitative (sectoral trends and inferences on macroeconomic effects, etc.) data.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in Microsoft.

 

Disclaimer 

1 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd ed), p151-153

 

Private Credit Woes

Besides the geopolitical news that is happening now at the Persian Gulf, another event is rocking the financial markets at the moment, too, and that is private credit.

 

Picture generated by Meta AI

 

What is Private Credit?

Traditionally, companies that required loans would either go through the mainstream banks, or via public markets in the form of bonds issuance. Private credit, on the other hand, are loans issued by institutional investors or private funds. A major attractive point of private credit to companies is that the debt structure can be negotiated with the lender, like interest rates and repayment terms. On the other end of the deal, investors who lend to companies through the private credit vehicle are expected to have higher returns to that of conventional bonds.

Though investing in private credit typically open to accredited and institutional investors, there are other slightly indirect ways for retail investors to participate using publicly listed securities. One is by investing in listed business development companies (BDCs), and the other is using exchange traded funds (ETFs). The majority of BDCs and private credit ETFs are traded on the United States market.

So, What’s the Problem Now?

A few reasons came together for the woes facing the private credit sector, with the main ones on the vulnerability of the software sector (Saas-pocalypse), and the aftereffects of having too long a period of low interest rates, which make highly leveraged companies unable to sustain payments in a rising interest rate period.

The above concerns, and in part due to private credit funds’ opaque nature of valuation, had led to a high number of private credit investors to start pulling out their monies for flight to safety. Being a closed end investment vehicle, managers of private credit funds had to curb the redemption requests as loans to companies are illiquid and could not be recalled quickly. All these resulted in a downward spiral which some analysts say may result in a crash seen during 2007/2008.

Impact

The impact on listed BDCs and private credit ETFs could be seen; BDC Blue Owl Capital (ticker: OBDC) had seen a drop of -12.6% year-to-date (YTD) of its share price, and the Simplify VettaFi Private Credit Strategy ETF (ticker: PCR) was down -13.6%, to name a couple.

Mainstreet Capital (ticker: MAIN), a BDC in our portfolio, also suffered with around -13%, and was dragged along with the rest. However, MAIN’s software exposure to software companies was relatively low (2%-6%¹) as compared to OBDC’s (at least 20%²), thus in the event of a major default happening in the software sector, MAIN would probably be the least affected from a fundamental point of view.

The Bedokian’s Take

One could see the interconnectedness of the various sectors and industries at play in the markets and economy, and recognising this and knowing how it works is important. This is part of associative investing³, where one could spot opportunities and possible threats by linking up their relationships around.

As for our investment in MAIN, we are considering adding positions to it; based on our 10-30 Rule price analysis⁴ and using the start and end closing prices of 2025, the 0.9 times of the average price is at about USD 53.75, which is above the closing price of USD 52.63 on 2 Apr 2026, signalling an entry.

Disclosure

The Bedokian is vested in MAIN.

Related post

Inside The Bedokian’s Portfolio: Mainstreet Capital

Disclaimer

All data is obtained and calculated from Yahoo Finance unless otherwise stated.

1 – Mainstreet Capital Corporation. Investor Presentation. Fourth Quarter – 2025. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_b292ae5bca9821007cb321f572787174/mainstcapital/db/396/11076/pdf/Q4+2025+MAIN+Investor+Presentation+-+v.2.25.26+-+320PM.pdf (accessed 3 Apr 2026)

2 – Pitcher, Jack & Wirz, Matt. Private Credit’s Exposure to Ailing Software Industry Is Bigger Than Advertised. The Wall Street Journal. 29 Mar 2026. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credits-exposure-to-ailing-software-industry-is-bigger-than-advertised-d80da378 (accessed 3 Apr 2026)

3 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Ed), p137-138

4 – ibid, p131-133