Rising Inflation? Rising Interest Rates? Both Are Not So Good

Recent economic talk has been centred on two words that has the same first two letters: inflation and interest. These two phrases have a not-so-favourable connotation to a third word with the same said first two letters that you and me are familiar with: investing. 

What About Inflation And Interest?

 

Inflation, as we know it, is the increase in prices and decline of the value of money. Grown at a steady pace, inflation is healthy as it is associated with economic growth. Too much inflation over a given time, however, leads to hyperinflation and this causes prices to rise unchecked and hastened the decline of monetary value.

 

Interest rates are one of the main tools used by governments and central banks to control the rate of inflation. A rise in interest rates will incentivize people to keep more cash as opposed to spending it since there is an associated yield. Also, it would raise the cost of borrowing and thus, provide a check on growth which is a basis for inflation.

 

Both are part and parcel of the whole scheme of things, and both can generally move and/or affect the economy and market. Notwithstanding other factors and issues, balancing between inflation and interest rates is a delicate act.

 

What Is Happening Now?

 

The current narrative of the situation is that inflation was the result of supply chain issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pent-up demand and a dearth of supply of goods and services brought about the rise of prices across, and these caused a chain effect across the entire economy. 

 

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, had announced plans of tapering, i.e., reduction of monetary stimulus of the economy, one of the factors in contributing to inflation. With tapering, interest rate hikes are expected soon by market participants, and when the Federal Reserve starts to increase interest rates, a large portion of the world’s economy would be affected, one way or another.

 

Effects On Investment

 

The problem about these two is that too much of one thing is generally not so good for investors. Too much inflation, and you will get loss of value of your cash, and bond payouts may also devalue since they pay a fixed amount. 

 

Too high an interest rate, your equities and REITs are affected since it raises the cost of borrowing and dampens leveraged growth; bonds are affected as their annual coupon rate may go lower than the interest rate itself and thus become unpopular; commodities are affected as holding them do not provide yield.

 

So how do we protect our investments? Simple. The above paragraphs talked about which asset classes are negatively affected by high (not hyper) inflation and rising interest rates. If we put a contextual mirror to them, you can flip them to see the positive side of things.

 

Still don’t get it? Here it goes. Inflation is good for equities, REITs and commodities, while a high interest rate allows cash to provide yield, generally speaking. In essence, the underlying message that I want to convey is: stay diversified. Diversification is key in protecting your investment portfolio in all kinds of economic weather.

 

One More Thing About Bonds

 

If you had noticed, bonds were unfavourable in times of high inflation and high interest rates, so I guess the next question would be: do we still need bonds in our investment portfolio?

 

My answer (and I am breaking my usual “it depends” rule) is yes. The inflation-interest rate scale is but one of the spectrums that is commonly used and observed in economic situations and market conditions. Bonds are useful in the recession part of the expansionary-recessionary scale in which it is a typical go-to asset class, and it is favoured during deflation in the inflation-deflation scale. Putting it simply, the whole thing is like a multi-faceted radar chart with different axes representing the range of factors.

 

Stay safe, stay calm, stay invested.

Two New REIT ETFs

We have two new REIT ETFs coming up: CSOP iEdge S-REIT Leaders Index ETF (CSOP ETF) and the UOB APAC Green REIT ETF (UOB Green ETF), both to be listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) on 18 Nov 2021 and 23 Nov 2021, respectively. With their entry, the total number of REIT ETFs listed on SGX will be five. 

The links to the upcoming REIT ETFs are under References below. In this post, I would like to make a selected comparison between them, and my take of the two REIT ETFs in general.

 

REIT ETF	CSOP ETF	UOB Green ETF
Index	iEdge S-REITs Leaders Index	iEdge-UOB APAC Yield Focus Green REIT Index
Total Expense Ratio  (per annum)	0.615% (estimated)1	0.85% (estimated)2
No. of Constituents (based on index)	27	50
Geographical Breakdown	Singapore – 64% Australia – 9% United States – 5% Mainland China & Hong Kong SAR – 8% Japan – 3% Others – 9%3	Japan – 40% Australia – 36% Singapore – 16% Hong Kong – 8%4
Sectoral Breakdown	Industrial – 42.5% Office – 19.7% Retail – 18.4% Data Centre – 7.5% Multi-Asset Class – 6.9% Healthcare – 2% Residential – 1.9% Hotel – 1.2%3	Diversified – 30% Retail – 29% Office – 28% Industrial – 9% Residential – 2% Real Estate Operating Companies – 1% Specialised – 1%4
Dividend Yield  (latest 12 months)	3.96% (as at 30 Jun 2021)5	4.25% (as at 30 Sep 2021)4

 

Fig.1: Comparison of selected factors between the two upcoming REIT ETFs.

 

A Note Before We Proceed

 

Before I begin to pen down a conclusion, I would like to bring in the existing three REIT ETFs, using the same factors in Figure 1.

 

REIT ETF	Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF6	NikkoAM-Straits Trading Asia Ex-Japan REIT ETF7	Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF8
Index	iEdge APAC Ex-Japan Dividend Leaders REIT Index	FTSE EPRA Nareit Asia ex Japan REITs 10% Capped Index	Morningstar® Singapore REIT Yield Focus Index
Total Expense Ratio  (per annum)	1.16%	0.6%	0.6%
No. of Constituents	30	28 (as at 31 Mar 2021)	27
Geographical Breakdown	Australia – 52.09% Singapore – 34.39% Hong Kong SAR – 10.84%	Singapore – 75.4% Hong Kong SAR – 15.3% Malaysia – 3.5% India – 3.5% China – 1.2% Thailand – 1% (as at 31 Mar 2021)	Singapore – 100%9
Sectoral Breakdown	Diversified – 41.67% Retail – 27.7% Industrial – 13.16% Office – 12.38% Others – 2.41%	Retail – 36.3% Industrial – 30.5% Office – 12.7% Diversified – 11.4% Hotel & Resort – 3.3% Specialised – 3.2% Others – 2.2% (as at 30 Sep 2021)	Industrial – 35.7% Retail – 32.8% Specialised – 9.6% Diversified – 6.1% Healthcare – 5.8% Office – 5.6% Hotel & Resort – 1.2% Residential – 0.7%
Dividend Yield	4.27%	5.22%10	4.56%10

 

Fig.2: Comparison of selected factors between the three listed REIT ETFs.

 

The reason why I brought all the REIT ETFs in is because we need to have an overall view of the REIT ETF landscape in SGX before making the call. As displayed in Figures 1 and 2, there are similarities and differences between the five, along with it some pros and cons are expected.

 

The factors shown here are typically used (but not exhaustive) by investors (myself included) in the selection of ETFs to invest in for a certain asset class (in this case, REITs). As to which factor to place emphasis on would depend on the individual; some may go for geographical and sectoral diversification, while some may just look at total expense ratios, and others would place importance on the dividend yield as a barometer for future payouts, etc. You could also have a weighted score across the factors and from there determine which to go for.

 

The Bedokian’s Take

 

Coming back to the two ETFs, the decision is dependent on the individual investor himself/herself. If one is convinced on the green theme, then having the UOB Green ETF is key, ceteris paribus. Another plus point for the UOB Green ETF is the high percentage of Japanese properties, which for the other one (and the existing three) are relatively much lower, thus a somewhat good proxy in Japanese market exposure.

 

In terms of geographical diversification and a higher proportion in industrials, the CSOP ETF would be the choice, also considering the seemingly lower expense ratio. Therefore, as per the typical reply in a Bedokian Portfolio blogpost, the answer is “it depends”, but this time it would be on yourself, the individual investor.

 

If your portfolio is large enough and want to have a diversification of ETFs, then there is no harm in getting both (or all five), too.

 

References

 

CSOP iEdge S-REIT Leaders Index ETF (http://www.csopasset.com/sg/en/products/sg-reit/etf.php)

 

UOB APAC Green REIT ETF (https://www.uobam.com.sg/sustainability/solutions/uob-apac-green-reit-etf.page)

 

1 – CSOP SG ETF Series I, CSOP iEdge S-REITs Leaders Index ETF prospectus p69-70, 28 Oct 2021. http://www.csopasset.com/sg/pdf/resources/sg_reit_etf/e_sg_reit_etf_30.pdf (accessed 6 Nov 2021). Percentage is derived based on stated current and/or known % p.a. and includes management, trustee and other fees and charges.

 

2 – United ESG Advanced ETF Series, UOB APAC Green REIT ETF prospectus p12-13, Oct 2021. https://www.uobam.com.sg/web-resources/uobam/pdf/uobam/sustainability/solutions/uob-etf-prospectus.pdf (accessed 6 Nov 2021). Percentage is derived based on stated current and/or known % p.a. and includes management, trustee, valuation and accounting, registrar, audit and custodian and other fees and charges.

 

3 – Presentation of CSOP iEdge S-REITs Leaders Index ETF: Riding the Wave with S-REITs Leaders by FSMOne. 12min 16 sec mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqudA-BIn8I (accessed 6 Nov 2021).

 

4 – iEdge-UOB APAC Yield Focus Green REIT Index. 30 Sep 2021. https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-10/iEdge-UOB%20Factsheet_Final_4.pdf (accessed 6 Nov 2021).

 

5 – iEdge S-REITs Indices. 30 Jun 2021. https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2021-07/S-REIT%20iEdge%20SREIT%20Indices%20-%20Factsheet%20June%202021.pdf (accessed 6 Nov 2021).

 

6 – Phillip Capital Management. Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF Product Info Sheet. 30 Sep 2021. https://phillipfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Phillip-SGX-APAC-Dividend-Leaders-REIT-ETF-Product-Sheet.pdf (accessed 6 Nov 2021).

 

7 – NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF. https://www.nikkoam.com.sg/etf/asia-ex-japan-reit-sgd (accessed 6 Nov 2021). All data in the respective column are from the site itself and downloadable content from the site, unless otherwise specified.

 

8 – Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF. https://www.lionglobalinvestors.com/en/funds/lion-phillip-s-reit-etf/index.html#dashBoard?fcode=LEPF (accessed 6 Nov 2021). All data in the respective column are from the site itself and downloadable content from the site, unless otherwise specified.

9 – Geographical breakdown is based on the country of listing of the ETF constituents, not that of the constituents’ assets.

 

10 – Data from dividends.sg. 7 Nov 2021.

The Best Time To Plan For Retirement Is Now

When I first stepped into the working world, I had encountered billboards and advertisements emblazoned with slogans sounding like the blog post title and showing a picture of a man/woman in a graduation gown and/or a young-looking office executive. Back then, being young (and foolhardy), retirement was the last thing on my mind. Come on, there is still at least another 30-plus years to go for me before reaching that stage, and I will think about it “when the time comes”.

Yes, that “time” came just about seven to eight years ago for me, at where I was nearing the halfway point of my working life. Suddenly, that slogan made some sense. The very essence of those messages was hiding in plain sight all along, and it took me that long to realise it. That essence is the power of compounding.

 

Power Of Compounding

 

Most of us had learnt the formula of compounding during our math lessons, which is:

 

Final Amount = Principal x (1 + Interest Rate) ^ Number of years 

(Assuming annual compound)

 

In school, this formula was used typically for calculating bank interest or final bank deposit amount after a certain number of years, but it works well in knowing how much one is getting after a certain period with a definitive rate of return. Hence, the formula can be modified to:

 

Final Amount = Principal x (1 + Return Rate) ^ Number of years

 

The ^ sign is the “power of”, which itself is a very powerful (pun intended) arithmetic function. Adding one to the “power of” would bring a huge jump in the overall result, as shown:

 

2² = 4, 2³ = 8, 2⁴ = 16…

 

Naturally, if the number of years is larger, the final amount would be larger, too. Coupled with pictures of young people in the mentioned billboards and advertisements, it all made sense now: when one is young, the number of years to retirement is a lot, and factoring in compounding, you are likely to end up with a larger final amount than those who started off much later.

 

A Race Between Two Individuals

 

Taking the concept of compounding up a notch, let us have two individuals who are of the same age, X and Y, and a financial product P that generates 5% returns a year. X started investing in P when he was 21 with an initial amount of $10,000 and contributed $5,000 per year for the next 10 years. Y started investing at age 40 with the same initial amount of $10,000 and contributed $5,000 per year for the next 20 years. By age 60, X ended up with $338,852 while Y finished with $200,129, despite the latter contributing more than the former¹. The result showed that compounding works best with a longer time horizon, which works well for X, so it pays off when one invests at a younger age.

 

Clearly for my case, I am Y in the story above. But fret not, for I am giving you this advice:

 

The best time to plan for retirement was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.

 

Go for it.

 

1 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Edition), p68-70

Thematic Investing

We all know about investing in asset classes, regions and countries, sectors and industries, and of course, individual companies. However, there is a rising trend of investing along the lines of themes. While thematic investing has been around for quite a while, there is a build-up of interest around it in recent times.

So, what is thematic investing? Pulling out from the CNBC news site, thematic investing is “…buying stocks or other investments that may benefit from a particular trend”¹.

Traditionally, investments are usually based along the lines of asset classes and so on as described in the first paragraph. For thematic investing, however, it tends to straddle across these traditional lines and it can be very focused on the theme in particular. For example, investing on the theme of fintech involves not only the technology and financial services sectors, but also across different countries where there are companies in this field. Fortunately, we have exchange traded funds (ETFs) to cater to such investments. There are many thematic ETFs to select from, and most follow an index, though there are actively managed ones that do not, e.g., some of the ARK ETFs.

 

There are many themes that you can invest in, such as the aforementioned fintech, green energy, cybersecurity, biotech, etc.

 

The Bedokian’s Take

 

Thematic investing forms part of an active Bedokian Portfolio strategy, which I had named it as “the next big thing”. I had shared in my eBook on how to go about it², and had identified three fields to go into back in 2017: cybersecurity, payment solutions and alternative energy.

 

It is an interesting area to venture into, but if you are a beginner investor and/or have a limited capital, it is preferred that you start off with the asset classes first, rather than jump straight into thematic. It is important to start off a portfolio consisted of the different asset classes to capture the benefits of diversification. Once you got your feet wet enough and build up enough investible capital, you can then consider allocating part of your portfolio to thematic.

1 – O’Brien, Sarah. ‘Thematic investing’ has skyrocketed. Here’s how to capitalize on trends that could shape the future. CNBC. 29 Jun 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/thematic-investing-has-taken-off-how-to-capitalize-on-trends-.html (accessed 10 Oct 2021) 

 

2 – The Bedokian Portfolio (2^nd Edition), p153-154

Keep Calm And Stay Invested

Recently we had been inundated by a lot of goings-on in the financial markets and economy, and most of them were not-so-good stuff. If you had paid attention to the recent news, we have a global energy crisis, the Evergrande debt crisis, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, the United States debt crisis, etc. After knowing these, does it feel like the whole world is falling around you?

 

Well, short of a big catastrophe which involves a large meteorite, a massive alien invasion or extreme weather changes that you see in the movies, life still goes on. In fact, it is at such down times that opportunities come a-knocking in other places. Other asset classes, regions/countries, sectors/industries, and companies may be enjoying some uptime during this period.

 

And if you are diversified well enough, you may be enjoying some slight gains, or experiencing some slight losses. Diversification is meant to protect against such times, so the heartache is not as bad as a concentrated investment portfolio on the affected areas.

 

If you had noticed, this would be my n^th blog post on staying calm / cool / composed / "ohmmmmmm” in trying moments. Though I may sound like a nag, being human however we have the “fight or flight” instinct built in us, and this behaviour extends to our investment decisions, which may likely result in bad ones. So before selling off everything in panic and run for the hills, we should take a step back and take stock of the situations and scenarios.

 

Stay calm and stay invested.

Edited, Extended, Expanded…And It Is Still Free!

Announcing the second edition of The Bedokian Portfolio eBook!

It has been more than five years since the first edition of the eBook was published online and available for free. During this time, a lot of changes and happenings took place in the economy and financial markets. To start off, we are in the middle of a global pandemic due to COVID-19, which saw several sectors and industries being deeply impacted, in both negative and positive lights. Airline, tourism and hospitality were hard hit, but technology and pharmaceuticals benefited. From here, we can see there are diverse responses and results to a given situation, even though as we know the whole economy and market is like one big machine with many different interrelated parts moving together.

 

Two localised developments worth mentioning since 2016 are the emergence of real estate investment trust (REIT) exchange traded funds, which we currently have three listed in the local Singapore Exchange, and robo-advisories taking root and gaining adoption by investors. There is, of course, cryptocurrencies, which is also gaining traction in recent years, though the future direction of it being a real currency or a speculative instrument is very much uncertain.

 

Though my overall strategies, methodologies and approaches of The Bedokian Portfolio remain similar between the two editions, there are some subtle differences. Between then and now, and after observing the markets for several years, I had developed nuanced views and opinions on certain points and issues, resulting in the differences. Adjustments and adaptations are part and parcel of evolvement, and that is applicable to portfolio management. Nevertheless, the general gist of The Bedokian Portfolio remains the same.

 

I hope you will enjoy this new edition. And remember, keep calm and carry on investing.

 

The new eBook is available for download here! You can also scan the QR Code located on the top right of the blog (if viewed on web version) to download.

Battlefield Lessons On Investing

As an individual, I believe in reading up and gaining additional knowledge for the betterment of oneself, for learning is a lifetime activity. A big advantage of having lots of general knowledge is the contextualization of one knowledge domain onto another, from which we could derive useful real-life applications. We can apply this onto investing as well. 

As a war history buff, I shall share an interesting bite on World War 2: 

 

In the second half of 1944 on the western European front, the Allied commanders were debating on whether to approach Germany on a broad front (i.e., keeping and moving the front line as even as possible), or to adopt a narrow front (i.e., one part of the front move further in than other part(s)). Eventually the broad front strategy, favoured by the Supreme Allied Commander, General Dwight D. Eisenhower (who went on to become the President of the United States in the 1950s), prevailed.

 

The rationale behind both sides of the argument were not without merit. The proponents of the narrow front would want to end the war quickly with a single decisive stroke at a particular location that would cause the Germans to capitulate, while supporters of the broad front pointed out the precarious logistical supply situation they were in. Though the German forces were routed earlier in France (thus giving the assumption of a potential quick victory had the Allies went for a narrow front), they were still a formidable foe, as demonstrated later in end 1944/early 1945 during the Ardennes Counterattack (known as the Battle of the Bulge). Furthermore, a narrow push runs the risk of the attack being cut off at the rear by the defenders.

 

So, what can we apply the above to the field of investing?

 

#1: Never Underestimate The Markets

 

Just as the Allies began to underestimate the Germans who eventually dealt them a surprising blow during the Battle of the Bulge, as an investor we should not be underestimating the markets. Though the markets are not our enemies, but our approach towards them should not be that of overconfidence and we cannot bank on them behaving as we thought they should be. Like situations on a battlefield, markets are erratic and unpredictable, and may spring a surprise that may benefit or frustrate you.

 

#2: Concentration May Bring High Returns, But High Risks, Too

 

If we plowed our entire investable resources into one asset class / region / country / sector / company, and that thing generated huge returns, we could say that we had hit the jackpot. However, if the thing went downhill, so would our resources and we could end up worse off. An example would be a play into technology back in 2020, after which the sector flourished and massive returns were enjoyed. However, if we did not know the coming of COVID-19 and went all-in the tourism sector, that would be catastrophic. 

 

#3: If You Are Not Sure, Go For A Broad Approach

If you are unsure of how to go about investing (or knowing the future of) a certain asset class / region / country / sector, the safest and easiest way would be to go for a broad approach using exchange traded funds (ETFs). In this way, your risks would be distributed and thus reduced. Always start from the asset class level, then go down to the region / country / sector levels after you are familiar with them. For example, for equities you could begin with global equities ETFs before going into region or country specific ones, and then into sectoral ones, and so on. The returns of the broad approach may not be as high as a concentrated one, but at least your capital is better preserved when things go downhill.