A question popped up by one of my friends
with regards to the commodities asset class in The Bedokian Portfolio. He asked
instead of getting gold, silver and oil, could he replace them with gold and
silver mining, and oil companies? After all, they are in the commodity
business.
To give my answer, it will be a “no”.
Why No
The main aim of the commodity asset class
is to have a form of insurance against the volatility of the markets, in
accordance to reducing portfolio risk through diversification of asset classes1. That being said, it is better to own “as
direct as possible” the commodities, be it physical or through ETFs that track
their prices.
On the other hand, when you buy into a
gold/silver mining or oil company, the price of the commodity itself is just
one part; you are also buying into the company’s assets, liabilities, management
strategies and styles, etc. In fact, you are actually buying into the equities
of the company which belong to the, obviously, equities asset class.
For example, when the price of gold goes
up, there is a high chance that the share price of a gold mining company will
go up as well, but how proportional this increase is will depend on other
factors of the company, such as costs of mining, the productivity levels, etc.
If the price of gold goes down, a mining
company may not want to mine them as the amount may not be worth their
expenditure effort. If this prolongs, it may run the risk of bankruptcy due to
cash flow problems. As with all companies, the bottom line is still the most
important. For physical gold or gold ETF, however, it just remains as it is
without much of the factors and risks described earlier.
So Can I Still Invest In These
Commodity-Related Companies
Yes you can, but remember to put them in
your equities asset class rather than the commodities one, and also provided
you do proper fundamental analysis before going into them.
1 – The Bedokian Portfolio, p37
Good argument on the additional risk in investing in mines.
ReplyDeleteThanks Cory.
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