2023 is coming in soon! In this post, I will share my views for the past year, my opinions of the coming year, and give an update on Bob’s portfolio.
2022 Review
2022 will be remembered as the year where the good times came to an end.
First up, we had the massive crypto meltdown. Taking Bitcoin as a barometer, from the highs of USD 47.7K at the beginning of the year, it fell to a low of USD 16.6K by 30 Dec 2022, a 65% drop, and this is not the worst. We had seen the collapse of several coins and entities related to cryptosphere: Terra-Luna, Three Arrows, FTX, to name a few, and these events shook the confidence of cryptos, even amongst their die-hard supporters (for now).
Next, we have the 2 “INs” wreaking havoc in the markets: INflation and INterest rates, and their rise had resulted in much increase in prices, and queue numbers in banks, finance companies and T-Bill applications. Though at this stage the interest rate returns are no match for the inflation numbers, they seem to be existing on two separate worlds when it comes to their approaches.
However, we still have some bad times coming to an end, too.
The opening up of countries from the pandemic lockdown had brought about the phenomenon of “revenge travel”, and this is very pronounced with the large numbers of tourists coming into Singapore (and Singaporeans going out), bringing in much needed revenue to our local economy, with hospitality and retail REITs benefitting significantly. And not forgetting the world’s second largest economy, China, is opening as well, after relaxing from their zero-COVID stance, and they would contribute more stuff than just tourists.
On the markets front, the S&P 500 index was down almost 20% YTD, while our local STI was (surprise surprise) up by around 3.7%.
Finally, we look at the year-to-date performance of HACK, IPAY and ICLN ETFs, which represented my next big things cybersecurity, electronic payments and clean energy respectively:
HACK: -28.16%1
IPAY: -32.31%1
ICLN: -5.35%1
The results were expected, as equities (especially in the technology sector) were hammered throughout the year. The silver lining from all these is that I have the option of adding more of them (i.e., averaging down), and since they are ETFs, bankruptcy risk of a single company is almost non-existent (save for a fund house blowout, which is low, too).
2023 Preview
Looking back at my 2022 preview, I was (almost) dead right on the inflation-interest rate issue, a bit late on the China one (for now), and my metaverse forecast is literally a non-event (for now). This meant that there is a huge disclaimer on what I was about to say, because (as always repeated) I do not really know what the future holds.
For 2023, I will only address one item and that is what a lot of people are talking and worried about: recession. Whether is it really coming, and if so, how short or long it will be, are questions on everybody’s minds, and there are no quick answers for these. The only things which we can do is to stay calm, stay invested and stay diversified.
Bob
As at 31 Dec 2022, Bob’s Bedokian Portfolio had grown to slightly above SGD 85K in value (excluding the cash component which is not shown) and gained a dividend amount of SGD 2,481.67. Overall, Bob’s portfolio was down 6.83% YTD, which is not too bad given other indices and companies suffering double digits. Bob will rebalance on 3 Jan 2023 with another SGD 5,000 injection, so stay tuned to his portfolio.
Happy 2023!
Disclosure
The Bedokian is vested in HACK, IPAY and ICLN.
1 – ETFDB.com, YTD as at 29 Dec 2022 (accessed 31 Dec 2022)
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