Know This, And You Are Halfway Knowing How The Market Works

I admit that the title of this post sounds like a click bait, but it is mostly true, at least based on my observations and conclusions.  In a way I had somehow stumbled upon a hypothesis that works most of the time.

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So, what is this wondrous hypothesis that could half answer how the markets work?

It goes like this:

Capital, assumed it is limited at the point of time, would either flow to assets that provide the most deemed yield, or to perceived safe assets, or both.

In layman speak, it would be:

Capital would go to securities that provide “more bang for the buck” and/or to a perceived safe haven.

If you had been reading my blog for at least the past three years, you may find the second italicized quote familiar; I had mentioned something along that line in this post, where I also emphasized on the importance of diversification. However, we can apply more from this hypothesis besides just diversification, and the accompanying trait of rebalancing. One way is to go contrarian.

 

Going Contrarian

The good thing about this hypothesis is that you can counter its logic and still profit from it. This is known as “going contrarian”.

When capital starts to move fast and huge, like a flash flood, you will notice big movements in the prices of assets and securities. As a retail investor, when these things are happening, it may be a bit late as other people would have jumped on the bandwagon before you, although maybe you are lucky enough to be at the tail end of it. The contrarian part is, since most are going with the metaphorical wave, why not go against it?

The thing about going contrarian is not to do it wholesale and blindly; it is important to pick the right ones and capitalise on it. For instance, if you are an active investor who goes for individual equities and real estate investment trust (REIT) counters, picking those that were financially healthy but got unfortunately dragged down by the overall bear situation was a good case of going contrarian intelligently. 

Though the contrarian way sounds like an act of portfolio rebalancing, which is long term in nature, it could also be used in medium term or short trading terms, too.