“A Broken Clock Is Correct Twice A Day”

You may have heard of the above, and it is typically applied to people whose predictions and forecasts do come true, only after a long period.

Picture generated by Meta AI

This holds true, too, in the world of investing and trading, specifically people who are in the business (or hobby) of providing market and stock analyses and predictions. As the combinations of future occurrences are infinite, there are times where things do fall in place at certain points of time.

And true to the broken clock analogy, time is the main variable, and with it, everyone’s postulated scenarios will happen sooner (maybe the next day) or later (perhaps in a million years from now). It is precisely this explanation that, if plausible enough to me, I do not diss anyone’s stated outcomes.

So, if you have been reading permabears’ opinions about an imminent market crash, or a certain bank stock will rise to a certain price that looked far-fetched at present; who knows, it may come to fruition someday, and it becomes a question of “when” and not “if”.

As I have often stated, predictions up to the “T” (the right happening at the right moment) is very difficult, and all we could do was to do estimated guesses i.e., “guesstimate” with the available data. Even so, different people would have a variety of interpretations of the data, and given their varied personalities and outlooks, it would give us a huge range of results.

Therefore, echoing my ex-colleague’s answer when asked about whether something may occur, his reply would contain the following:

“Only time will tell”.