As part of the Star Wars Day (May the Fourth) special, I will share a post on dark side factors that could derail an investment portfolio.
Dark Side Factor #1: No Diversification/Under-diversification
Imagine an investment portfolio that consists of only one counter, and if anything extreme happens to it, be it a company bankruptcy or a bond default, the whole portfolio goes poof. In non-extreme cases, a price drop of its securities would bring put a big dent, since basically the portfolio equals to that one counter.
Going further, though with the safety of numbers, there is this risk of under-diversification as well, especially if investments are on basically one sector/industry and/or one region/country. Think about an event that affects the entire sector/industry (e.g., airlines and travel during the COVID19 pandemic) and/or country/region (e.g., the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997) and what would happen to the portfolio.
The answer to deal with this would be adequate diversification, and for the Bedokian Portfolio’s case ranks in the following order: asset classes, region/country, and sector/industry. In this way the risks are spread, with the downside mitigated due to the net effects of correlation between the counters.
Dark Side Factor #2: No Rebalancing
Rebalancing and diversification go hand in hand, thus even with diversification done but with no rebalancing performed, there is still a danger to one’s portfolio. Allowing an asset class to deviate from the preferred or designated allocation would create concentration risk akin to #1, lost opportunities to invest in other asset classes at their lows, and not to mention compromising an investor’s risk tolerance when the portfolio moves away from the set make-up.
Rebalancing can be done in two main ways: either passive or active. Passive rebalancing is usually done periodically, e.g., quarterly, half-yearly or annually. Active rebalancing involves re-allocation to the portfolio make-up constantly or within a short period. Either way, if it is done, one will be steered away from the dark side.
Dark Side Factor #3: Getting Emotional
The Jedi practised emotional control so as not to be affected by them, and this extends to how one should manage their portfolios whether during happy and crunch times. Many times, I have had heard of the phenomenon of “buy high sell low”, and dumping everything to “run for the hills”, only for the investor to regret the decision later.
The markets and the economy go through a boom-and-bust cycle, which is part and parcel of the investment journey. As said countless times, stay calm, enjoy the ride, be rational and carry on investing, for its time horizon is long.
Dark Side Factor #4: Not Sticking To The Plan
It is good to fine tune a portfolio methodology and make-up to suit one’s preference and risk tolerance, but to do it extremely (e.g., switch totally from equities to cryptos, etc.) and/or frequently (e.g., Bedokian Portfolio this year, 60/40 equities/bonds next year, etc.) would likely bring lower returns and unnecessary risks than one had not made the change in the first place.
When embarking on the journey of investing, it is recommended to know one own’s objectives and risk appetite, and also read up to learn about it, which I had covered here and here respectively. Once these are in place and the investing philosophy and methodology established, it is easier to carry out according to plan, and perform tweaks down the road.
Dark Side Factor #5: Leverage
While using leverage could increase returns based on what some investing books had stated, for the uninitiated it could prove to be a handful when one need to monitor the portfolio and the borrowings simultaneously. With an even greater leverage on leveraged products, where returns and losses are heavily amplified, the risk of margin calls is greater.
When utilising borrowings, it is important that one should have a clear understanding of what he/she is doing, and the advantages and implications behind them.
May the Fourth be with you.
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